Tag Archives: enso

New study ‘reduces uncertainty’ for climate sensitivity

view on the sun over inversion from jested
View on the sun over inversion from Jested, Jested-Kozakov ridge, Czech Republic. Credit: Nataliya Hora / Alamy Stock Photo

Scientists have presented a new, narrower estimate of the “climate sensitivity” – a measure of how much the climate could warm in response to the release of greenhouse gases

January 17, 2018 — The latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that climate sensitivity is close to 3°C, with a “likely” range of 1.5 to 4.5°C. Continue reading New study ‘reduces uncertainty’ for climate sensitivity

Learning From an Extreme El Niño

2015-2016 extreme el nino
The 2015-2016 extreme El Niño brought drought and fire to Indonesia. Smoke from extensive and uncontrollable forest fires blankets southern Borneo in October 2015. It spread westward causing severe haze over Singapore and Malaysia. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MISR instrument team

A recent paper in Reviews of Geophysics describes new scientific insights on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation from analysis of the 2015-2016 extreme El Niño

January 10, 2018 — The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is a periodic change in the ocean-atmosphere system of the tropical Pacific Ocean but which has knock-on effects on weather around
the world. In an article recently published in Reviews in Geophysics, Santoso et al. [2017] examined the 2015-2016 El Niño event which was particularly extreme. The editor asked one of the authors to explain the characteristics of that El Niño and what scientists learned from it. Continue reading Learning From an Extreme El Niño

Giant Snails’ Century-Old Shells Recorded Monsoon Rainfall

giant african land snail
The giant African land snail can grow larger than the size of an adult human hand, as seen here. The species, which has invaded habitats in many parts of the world, may help scientists retrace the rainfall history of monsoons across the Indian subcontinent. Credit: Paul Brown/Rex Features via Associated Press

Researchers explored past precipitation in India using shells from very large land snails collected there in 1918 and preserved in a British museum

September 25, 2017 — The shells of a large, invasive snail in India can provide exceptionally fine grained records of past precipitation in the region, a new study finds. By measuring isotope ratios in shells from some of these snails from as long ago as 1918, the researchers have demonstrated that they could reconstruct the subseasonal rainfall rate of past monsoon seasons. Continue reading Giant Snails’ Century-Old Shells Recorded Monsoon Rainfall

Extreme El Niño events more frequent even if warming limited to 1.5C – report

extreme el niño
The risk of extreme El Niño events would rise from five events per century to 10 by 2050 under a scenario that presumes warming peaks at 1.5C by that year. Photograph: Alamy

Modelling suggests Australia would face more frequent drought-inducing weather events beyond any climate stabilisation

July 25, 2017 — Extreme El Niño events that can cause crippling drought in Australia are likely to be far more frequent even if the world pulls off mission improbable and limits global warming to 1.5°C. Continue reading Extreme El Niño events more frequent even if warming limited to 1.5C – report

Pacific Ocean shift could see 1.5C limit breached within a decade

civil society protests
Civil Society Protests at COP21, Paris Credit: Takver/Flickr

Global average temperatures could pass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next decade, new projections suggest

May 8, 2017 — The timing of when we actually hit the 1.5°C threshold will depend heavily on a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean, the study finds, which can either dampen or accelerate global temperature rise. Continue reading Pacific Ocean shift could see 1.5C limit breached within a decade