earth shots

Silver linings: the climate scientist who records cloud behavior

earth shots
‘This is the best planet … it’s part of Nasa’s mission to look at other worlds, but we also want to look down at our world as well,’ says Kate Marvel. Photograph: ISS/Nasa

Clouds cool the planet by reflecting solar energy back to space and also trap heat and radiate it back to Earth. In a Yale Environment 360 interview, physicist Kate Marvel discusses the double-edged effect clouds have on rising temperatures

August 18, 2017 — Clouds perform an important function in cooling the planet as they reflect solar energy back into space. Yet clouds also intensify warming by trapping the planet’s heat and radiating it back to Earth. As fossil fuel emissions continue to warm the planet, how will this dual role played by clouds change, and will clouds ultimately exacerbate or moderate global warming?

Kate Marvel, a physicist at Columbia University and a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, is investigating the mysteries of clouds and climate change. And while she and her colleagues would like to offer definitive answers on this subject, the fact is that few now exist. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, she discusses what is known about the behavior of clouds in a warming world (they are migrating more toward the poles), why strict controls need to be imposed on geoengineering experiments with clouds, and why she is confident that science and human ingenuity will ultimately overcome the challenge of climate change.

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Kate Marvel: ‘With a lot of geoengineering experiments, I worry about how consent is going to be obtained.’ Photograph: Courtesy of Yale E360

Yale Environment 360: Why are clouds such a challenge when it comes to accounting for them in climate change models?

Kate Marvel: Clouds are really important to the climate. They explain why different climate models predict different possible futures. Some climate models are saying it’s going to get really hot, and some climate models are saying it’s going to get hot, but not as hot. And it turns out that differences in cloud changes, predicted by the models, are kind of the main reason for that.

And clouds are hard to model because they are simultaneously large and small. When you think about how clouds form, they are the result of microscopic water droplets, or ice crystals, coalescing like grains of sand. But at the same time, they cover 75% of the Earth’s surface. So it’s really hard for a climate model, which is fundamentally large scale, to get those really small-scale processes right. So we know that climate models don’t handle clouds very well. We’ve known that for a while. But clouds are also very important in regulating the climate. They block a lot of sunlight, but they also trap a lot of heat coming up from the Earth’s surface.

e360: So it’s opposing effects. What dictates which effect a cloud will have?

Marvel: It depends on several aspects; what the cloud is made of is very important. Clouds that are made of ice particles are less reflective, they reflect less sunlight than juicier clouds made of liquid water droplets.

Cloud height is also really important. If you look up on a clear, summer day, and you see wispy, cirrus clouds, those obviously are not very good at blocking sunlight; they let sunlight stream through. But they are very good at trapping the heat from the planet’s surface. So, high clouds in general have a warming effect, but, low, thick clouds – the kind you see on a cloudy, gloomy day – are really good at blocking sunlight, so those have a cooling effect.

e360: Researchers have gained a deeper understanding of cloud behavior in a warming world. Talk a bit about what we’ve learned.

One of the greatest things about science is that we can say, ‘We don’t know,’ or ‘We don’t know yet.’

Marvel: We had a paper in the Journal of Climate that showed clouds are moving in the way that we would expect them to. So if you think about those low clouds that block sunlight, they are going to be much more effective in the tropics, where there is more sunlight, than there is further toward the poles, where the sun is less intense. And climate change is predicted to alter atmospheric circulation patterns. It is predicted to push everything poleward. We have seen clouds following that particular trajectory. If you look at the large-scale patterns of clouds, they are moving toward the poles.

e360: A Nature paper published after yours found an upward motion to clouds. Did you also find that?

Marvel: We found hints of it; in the Nature paper it is much clearer because they made corrections that accounted for the fact that the satellite records are really patchy and they were able to really observe clearly that high cloud shift. And there have been other studies that have observed that when it’s warmer, high clouds shift upwards. That is an effect that we think we understand fairly well.

e360: What are the consequences of this poleward and upward motion of clouds?

Marvel: Both of them give rise to what I think is the most confusing part of climate jargon. We call it a “positive feedback”, and you think that sounds great. I like getting positive feedback. But when climate scientists talk about a positive feedback, we mean some process that changes in response to warming, that accelerates that warming.

e360: And is this trend, poleward and upward, something that the models say will continue under a business-as-usual scenario?

Marvel: Yes, we think so.

e360: There was some discussion when these studies came out regarding whether this was a consequence of global warming or that these movements were a consequence of recovery from major volcanic activity. Where do things stand with that at this point?

Marvel: That’s a really good point. You have to be careful about attributing things to natural external forces versus human-caused external influences. We are currently working on a project that is trying to tease out those influences. But I don’t think there’s been a study published that definitively attributes the observed changes to one particular external sourcing.

e360: Of course, climate deniers can grab hold of something like that and say, “See, they don’t really know.”

Marvel: That’s one of the greatest things about science … we can say we don’t know, or we don’t know yet. I’m suspicious of people who say, “I have all the answers.” I think there’s this real tendency to say that, “Oh, well if you don’t know everything, you don’t know anything.” And I think that’s totally wrong. The continued existence of science does not invalidate science. The fact that we’re still asking questions doesn’t mean that the method we’re using to answer those questions is wrong.

e360: Most of our cloud observations come from weather satellites. However, there was a NASA satellite in the planning stage that was designed to look at cloud behavior. President Trump’s proposed budget zeroes out that mission. Should NASA projects that deal with climate change be a priority in the upcoming budget?

Marvel: I certainly think so. We have this amazing satellite technology. We can observe all of us from space. We can measure things that we never dreamed we could measure and that’s a miracle. I also think it’s extremely cost-effective. Why would we not want to do it? I started my career as an astrophysicist, and then I realized that nowhere else in the universe is as good as here, right? This is the best planet. And it’s part of NASA’s mission to look at other worlds, but we also want to look down at our world as well.

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‘Low, thick clouds are really good at blocking sunlight, so they have a cooling effect.’ Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

e360: In a recent commentary, a group of researchers, including two from the University of Washington, made the case for conducting small-scale experiments using a geoengineering technique known as cloud brightening. They want to spray saltwater into marine clouds making them more reflective of sunlight as a possible way of reducing global warming. What’s your take on such experiments?

Marvel: With geoengineering, I’m always very concerned because if I want to do an experiment on human subjects, as a university researcher, I have to go in front of a review board and convince them that all of my human subjects have given informed consent to participate in this experiment. And with a lot of geoengineering experiments, I worry about how that consent is going to be obtained. The Climate Geoengineering Governance Project is starting to think about how we would design an international law regime to actually regulate this.

e360: You’ve written that when it comes to climate change, “I refuse to give in to despair. I just don’t have time for that. I’m too busy doing science.” Tell me more about the roll-up-your-sleeves attitude you’ve got.

People ask me, ‘Are you just depressed all the time? How do you keep going?’ … I have hope in human ingenuity

Marvel: People ask me, “Aren’t you just depressed all the time? How do you keep going in the face of this?” We’re all going to die. You know, there’s not a lot of good news there. But we all manage to find happiness and fun in our lives anyway. And I do have hope, I do think that we are an amazing species; and we do a lot of terrible things, but we also do a lot of very good things. I do have hope in human ingenuity. I don’t think we peaked with the internal combustion engine. So that gives me hope.

Going back to your question about NASA satellites, the fact that we as a species can look at our planet from above, that’s amazing. The fact that we understand how the planet actually works, and we keep continuing to ask these questions – that gives me hope. That makes me optimistic about the future of our species.

guardian_64 by Dianne Toomey for Yale Environment 360 | The Guardian